DOES new construction lower rents? THEY say so... let's look! 👀 Austin & Minneapolis.

Let’s Talk About Austin and Minneapolis:

DOES New Construction Lower Rent?

And Why Would Richmond Allow Zoning That Wouldn’t Pass as an SUP?

Richmond is trying to eliminate onerous Special Use Permits (SUPs). I get it: I too hate paperwork! But I value more and respect the community voices that determine if something is a benefit… or a detriment to them.

That is why SUPs are important.

In Richmond, all of the following six SUP criteria must be met to pass:

𝟙 It won’t be detrimental to the health, safety, morals and general welfare of the community involved.

𝟚 It won’t create congestion in the streets, roads, alleys, and other public ways and places in the area involved.

𝟛 It won’t create hazards from fire, panic, or other dangers.

𝟜 It won’t cause overcrowding of land and undo and an undue concentration of population.

𝟝 It won’t adversely affect or interfere with the public or private schools, parks, playgrounds, water supplies, sewage, disposal, transportation, or other public requirements, conveniences, and improvements, or

𝟞 It won’t interfere with adequate light and air.

“And if any one of them is not met, the special use permit is not permitted,” confirms Rodney Poole, chair of the Planning Commission.

Code Refresh must maintain these same protections of our existing communities… or be rejected.

IF CODE REFRESH DOESN'T EVEN PASS AS A SPECIAL USE PERMIT (which allows more than the baseline of zoning) why would Richmond pass it as zoning?

Always evaluate the benefits or negative impacts to your community when making decisions on change!

---

Similarly, policyswayers are loudly holding up Austin & Minneapolis as examples where increasing housing supply lowered rent. So let’s look at them!

Policyswayers tell us that if we build a bunch of housing, prices will fall. In Richmond WE observe prices and taxes jump up in newly labeled premium districts that USED to be affordable housing, displacing residents. They cite Austin and Minneapolis as success stories.

I looked into it, and they’re right! Overall, prices fell! Let’s see how these two cities are bucking the trend of skyrocketing rents and displacement near luxury development, and instead became beacons of success.

Austin

In Austin, home prices are down 26% in the last 3 years, dropping 6x more in this crash than in the 2008 crash. See, in 2022, the collapsing rental bubble became a crash market with 40-50% discounts. In short, developers overbuilt condos & apartments by mistake. It peaked, was 50% overvalued, and locals couldn’t afford to buy houses. Then slowed migration and higher mortgages created another Austin crash.

That crash, which is bad enough, permanently scarred the city’s local ownership and attractiveness: over 3,500 homes (including single-family and multi-family) were demolished between 2019 and 2024 to make way for Austin’s “better” denser, Anywhere USA development. 

Austin’s Black population declined to 7.5% by 2024–2026, down from over 12% in the 1980s - almost half of what Austin used to vibrantly be!

Is this the healthy density you want for Richmond?

Minneapolis

Minnesota recently experienced a net loss of native residents to other states. Between 2020 and 2022, the state lost over 37,000 people to domestic migration due to high income taxes, crime, and weather, with notable outflows in middle-to-high income brackets to Florida and Texas.

A new report from the Minneapolis Fed shows the Twin Cities came up short on all three of its annual affordable housing goals, raising concerns about the region’s progress in building homes and closing the homeownership gap.

With institutional investors purchasing increasing shares of single-family homes, Black homeownership rates continued to drop. Experts say high costs and interest rates are major challenges. The Twin Cities region has one of the largest gaps between Black and White homeownership rates in the country, with white households at 77% and Black households at 29% in 2024. The goal had been to increase Black homeownership to 45% by 2030, but after years of improvement, the share of homes with Black owners dropped from 34.3% to just over 29%.

In 2026, migration had a significant, traumatic contraction following "Operation Metro Surge," the largest federal immigration enforcement operation in the agency's history. See, like Richmond, Minneapolis was drawing newcomers from elsewhere, in this case California, newcomers who were attracted to the lower cost of homes. Immigrant communities now have a significant footprint in the Twin Cities, including roughly 9,000 business owners, accounting for 12% of all business owners in the region.

While overall Minneapolis rents went down, it is important to note WHICH rents dropped. Similar to Richmond, new apartment units are usually studios to 2 bedrooms (in an extraordinarily decreasing amount of square footage). Only 8% of new apartments built in the Midwest (not just Minneapolis) were three-bedroom units as of 2024.

3-Bedroom Units, which I assume are mostly in existing, older housing stock (if only 8% of new builds have them), saw a 8% price increase in the past year. 

4-Bedroom prices increased by a significant 32%.

While Minneapolis increased its housing stock significantly between 2017 and 2022, the Minneapolis Federal Reserve reports in 2026 that rent prices are still rising in the Twin Cities, and that slowed rent growth is often linked to demand weakness rather than just housing supply increases.

Downtown Minneapolis has lagged with occupancy rates forecasted at 92.1% by late 2025, even with new buildings offering 1–2 months of free rent to attract residents. 

Its office vacancy rate is 30% in 2026, suggesting fewer people want to live or work in the city. 

Declining birth rates and an aging population have led to fewer new households. The region's population grew by only 2.7% between 2020 and 2024, with annual growth rates in the 2020s considerably lower than in previous decades.

Is Austin or Minneapolis the model we want to emulate in Richmond? The policyswayers think so...

Communities respond: “Thank you, but NO thank you.”

Code Refresh Neighborhood Position Statements, Signs, and Neighborhood Conversations.

Neighbors joined for a neighborhood-association-led program to answer community questions in May.

---

The latest neighborhood positions on Code Refresh have been published!

(If YOUR neighborhood has taken a position on Code Refresh, please send them to me!)

Historic West Grace Street

The Board of the Historic West Grace Street Association fully endorses the positions of the Fan District Association and Warsaw Condominium's concerns about Code Refresh.

Position of Historic West Grace Street Association: 

 

Historic West Grace Street is an integral part of the Fan District, containing numerous fine homes that have been carefully restored and maintained by their owners. In addition, West Grace has many properties that provide housing to renters, including families, retirees, and college students. The Historic West Grace Street Association (HWGSA) is closely tracking the City of Richmond’s Zoning Code Refresh (Code Refresh) initiative as it relates to Historic West Grace Street and the City of Richmond at large. As a neighborhood association, we fully endorse the position of the Fan District Association (FDA) that the first and second version of Code Refresh does not support the Richmond 300 as approved.

As Historic West Grace Street is a border of the Fan District AND a designated historic neighborhood, Historic West Grace Street merits additional consideration.

1. HWGSA supports additional housing opportunities but allowing SIX units per original home in addition to an ADU by right returns West Grace Street to the rooming house neighborhood of the 1970’s and 1980’s, which negatively impacted our neighborhood (for reference, review the plethora of city zoning complaints still on record during that time that clearly document rooming house transgressions).

Currently, approximately 40% of our neighborhood are buildings with rental units. The average home has approximately 8 rooms. Allowing 6 units per home fosters locked single rooms along hallways with one bathroom. After World War II, many of West Grace Street’s properties were divided up to accommodate increased demographic growth and, in the 1970s, a growing number of VCU students. With single room occupancy, crime grew along the street in the form of illegal sex work and drug sales. Residents worked hard to eradicate the criminal activities while lobbying successfully to convert West Grace into a quiet, cobblestoned two-way street with stop signs. As a result of this extraordinary advocacy by West Grace Street residents, today we are one of the city’s most vibrant and heterogeneous neighborhoods.

Historic West Grace Street adamantly opposes any removal or change to the definition of family, and that only three unrelated people may reside in a home. 

2. Mandatory shadow modeling must occur for any 3+ story new builds adjacent to existing communities to ensure the city does not violate solar net zero opportunities, the Richmond 300, Climate Equity Action Plan, and Net Zero 2030 commitments. “Balcony solar” or “plug in” solar panels received approval by the Virginia legislature and was signed by Gov. Abigail Spanberger in April 2026, to allow renters and homeowners affordable opportunities to lower utility bills and embrace greener energy. These benefits to residents must be protected. 

Code Refresh proposes building heights from five to thirteen stories along the south side of W. Broad Street from Lombardy Street to Arthur Ashe Blvd. The construction of towering buildings across the narrow alleys of West Grace would compromise decades of progress in making West Grace a vibrant, inclusive, and distinctive neighborhood. Further, the 4-story building limit on West Broad from Lombardy to Strawberry, and the 5-story limit on West Broad buildings from Strawberry to Arthur Ashe that HWGSA negotiated with the city during the PULSE Corridor Plan MUST be honored. 

3. RM-A and RM-B are inappropriate for quiet West Grace Street and should be zoned RA like the rest of the Fan. Current zoning minimum lot sizes, building coverage percentages, heights, stepbacks, and setbacks must be maintained to ensure resiliency for our community. 

11% of adults and 8% of children have food allergies, often undiagnosed and life-threatening, so it is further inappropriate to zone residential Grace Street RM, especially when Broad offers food/business opportunities one street over but far enough away to not harm residents.

HWGSA looks forward to the opportunity to work with the City’s elected leaders to ensure that thoughtful, targeted goals of Code Refresh are achieved while supporting the Richmond 300.

Signed, Historic West Grace Street Association

Read the positions of the Fan District Association, Ginter Park, and Warsaw Condominiums communities here:

• FDA Position
• Ginter Park Position
• Warsaw Condominiums Position

---

Want to order a Code Refresh yard sign? You can do so, here!

What the New York Times celebrates, Code Refresh will decimate.

Carolers in Church Hill.

What the New York Times celebrates, Code Refresh will decimate. Tourism is drawn to our neighborhoods’ old architecture, gardens, local businesses, and irreplaceable natural resources, setting Richmond apart from tenement-filled, sun-blocked cities, creating almost 24,000 jobs and lowering taxes by over $500 per household a year. Yet our iconic architecture has sparse demolition protection. If Code Refresh has its way with Richmond, revenue-generating historic architecture, local business, and gardens disappear for high-rent concrete towers anchored by chains… or worse, ground floors barren of any activity.

Affordable rentals, homeownership, and Richmond’s entrepreneurs disappear with Code Refresh’s RM zoning of 6-12 units crammed onto any lot, trampling the unique charm that drew the New York Times to our city. Want to see your Code Refresh future? Drive by the Publix area of Carytown and the new builds on Broad and look for any local entrepreneurs or tourism draws.

More than 16 million visitors enjoy the Richmond region each year, contributing nearly $2.9 billion to the local economy. Zoning will cram 3 houses on every lot: our homes, many starter homes and rented (and remember: 1 in 3 standalone homes are rented), disappear. Existing affordable housing is vaporized for new multi-units.

Gardens, our infrastructure that cleanses, absorbs, and are celebrated in tours that draw people from states away, will be concreted to 80% per lot, our trees chopped, our homes razed for luxury rentals. Where are the food plots?

Westwood and other neighborhoods value trees, soil, and water... and our homes.

The New York Times admires “stunning” views from Legends Brewery to Church Hill, but Richmond planners envision boxes obliterating our skyline. Code Refresh will deeply hurt the James: no one kayaks in or hikes by sewage, which Code Refresh will bring. Infrastructure or schools are not mentioned once in Code Refresh.

Parts of iconic Shockoe, Jackson Ward, Church Hill, most of the Fan, and all of Bellevue, Uptown, Highland Park, Forest Hill, Brookland Park, Westover Hills and Heights, Maymont, Byrd Park, Oregon Hill, Randolph, Ginter Park, Stratford Hills, Monroe Ward, the Museum District, our river views, trees and soil: GONE. Richmond won’t protect them; Code Refresh zoning will foster their destruction. 

Richmond’s sustainability and zoning staff admire Singapore and Oregon, but the Richmonders I speak with do NOT want to be a tower-filled tenement city. By protecting existing homes, soil, tree canopy, and the James, Richmond remains a vibrant city where tourism and locals can thrive.

Why would Code Refresh destroy our homes?

Neighbors ask: "Why would Code Refresh destroy our homes?"

In Jackson Ward, the average home is 1,800 square feet. In Randolph and Westwood, 1,300 - 1,400 square feet. Maymont's average home is 1,100 - 1,500 square feet, and in Swansboro, 1,300 - 1,550 square feet.

Church Hill 's average homes span 1,500 - 2,500 square feet; Carver's, 1,600 - 1,660.
The City Stadium neighborhood typically averages around 1,200 to 1,400 square feet. 
Bellevue ranges between roughly 950 to 3,500 square feet.

Does Code Refresh intend to demolish average/smaller Richmond homes to build LARGER duplexes that fill these lots?

Does Code Refresh intend to destroy our existing small ownership opportunities for permanent rentals?

Today, renting a 1,500 sq ft apartment falls between $1,700 - $2,400+ per month.

If Code Refresh *really* cares about AFFORDABLE HOUSING (or the environment!) it would keep additional units small, 500-800 square feet, and focus on RETROFITS.

About 60% of Richmond's housing is rentals. Shouldn't Richmond protect home ownership opportunities so families can achieve home ownership to pass on to future generations?

86% of renters WANT TO OWN A HOME.

Demolishing homes to create permanent rentals keeps the next generation from building wealth, weighing them down with permanent leases. Single-family rental households in Richmond grew 31% over the last 20 years, outpacing owner-occupied homes.

We already allow second units on every lot with ADUs, don't forget. We know the first thing developers are going to do, including the non-profit "affordable housing" developers, is knock down existing cottages (don't forget many neighborhoods' average homes are about 1,500 ft.) to build footprints twice as large just with two units. 

So the insults "green" and "affordable" YIMBYs hurl out as McMansionizing is actually what they intend to do: RentMcMansionize.

A new member added another layer of insight: by allowing duplexes, developers are tapping in to existing pipes without a mandatory infrastructure plan that would otherwise be required on new lots without infrastructure.

Is Code Refresh anti-ownership, anti-environmental? 
It's certainly not following Richmond 300.

Code Refresh must maintain today's unbuilt yard percentages to protect affordable housing and save Richmond's living, irreplaceable trees.

Code Refresh must maintain today's unbuilt yard percentages to protect affordable housing and save our living, irreplaceable trees.

Retrofits are Richmond's most powerful affordable housing tool - and they save trees.

Retrofits affordably modernize aging structures, keeping longtime residents in place instead of displacing them. They cut energy bills by 30% or more, directly lowering costs for low-income families. They improve health through better insulation and air quality. They cost far less than new construction. Retrofits don't destroy Richmond's irreplaceable trees.

Retrofits overwhelmingly preserve affordable housing AND our tree canopy. That's not a coincidence. That's smart, humane city-building.

WE NEED TREES EVERY SINGLE DAY, not just for Earth Month.

It's refreshing to hear planning and sustainability staff talk about trees, sunlight, and soil. (Last year, sustainability staff told us tall concrete was great because it puts neighbors in permanent shade and brings wind shear!)

But our lungs don't work on a calendar: Richmond needs every inch of tree canopy shading us in brutal summers, opening us to winter light, filtering our air, absorbing our stormwater 365 days a year.

Here's what's at stake:
- 2008: Richmond's tree canopy covered 42% of our land.
- 2018: 32%.
- Today: The average Richmond neighborhood has just 23% coverage.

Picture your block from above, only 23% trees. The rest? Concrete. No air filtration. No heat relief. No stormwater absorption. No food gardens. Just heat, flooding, and pollution.

We cannot afford to lose another inch.

Why do yards matter so much?
Because 85% of Richmond's trees are on private residential lots.

Not in parks. Not in tree wells along sidewalks. In yards, that Code Refresh is about to diminish.

Planners talk often about public tree wells, but they don't replace yard trees, and they can't. Public trees serve public space. They do not fulfill a private lot's obligation to its neighbors, just as a public park cannot substitute for private green space. That's not a technicality. That's the difference between a livable block and a heat island.

Tree funds don't work. Up to 50% of newly planted urban trees die within the first year. Ninety percent of tree funds fail. A mature, thriving tree is not a line item you can budget for. It took decades to grow. It cannot be replaced.

Reducing unbuilt lot percentages in Code Refresh is a direct attack on Richmond's health.

Eighty-five percent of our trees are in yards. 

Reduce those yard requirements, and you are choosing - in writing, in city code - to sacrifice the air quality, heat resilience, and livability of our neighborhoods. You are telling low-income residents that their block doesn't deserve shade. That their children don't deserve clean air. That their flooding doesn't matter.

Unacceptable.
Code Refresh must not only maintain today's unbuilt lot percentages, it must strengthen them. Every lot, including apartment buildings, should be required to support soil-based habitat, food-growing gardens, and tree canopy. Resilience isn't a luxury. It belongs to every neighbor, on every block.

Protect the trees we still have. Grow more. Code Refresh must protect Richmond, not destroy it.

Photos: Irreplaceable trees in Richmond's irreplaceable Bellevue and Frederick Douglass Court.

Concerned Over Code Refresh? Join the NeighborhoodS.

Concerned Over Code Refresh? Join the NeighborhoodS.

NeighborhoodS are concerned!

• Loosening Zoning Does NOT Lessen Our Affordable Housing Crisis.

• RKG Associates' Consultant Conflict: Beyond Subdivisions: Mapping the By-Right Density Expansion in Richmond’s RA and RM Districts

• Homes for All Our Neighbors is... MISLEADING and ANTI sustainability.

• Code Refresh Eliminates Family, to Bring Back Rooming Houses.

Don't believe a tuk tuk, WHERE'S THE INFRASTRUCTURE?

Want a sign? Order yours here.

That's not all that's missing. Stay tuned, for more.

December 5

We are pleased to see some changes to the proposed zoning codes and land use regulations in Code Refresh Draft 2, but believe that these zoning and land use reforms will mean monumental changes for neighborhoods city-wide, and so should be carefully researched and vetted for potential outcomes. 

We heard from neighborhoods who are not pleased with draft 2.0 and from others who have felt excluded from the conversation. This is worth taking our time to get it right and to engage as many stakeholders as possible, including those often marginalized. If you believe that the process should be slowed down to ensure that the process ensures open, effective dialogues with stakeholders, that we have as many tools as possible in the toolkit to incentivize the kinds of diverse and affordable housing as we need for our future, and that land use regulations regarding conditional uses and criteria for bonuses awarded to developers are clearly defined, then sign the petition today!

As we chew over Code Refresh's 2nd Draft, a few items come to mind:

1. The preservation bonus is a good step. Richmond values carbon life cycles and historic charm! Retrofit is 60% less expensive, greener than any new build, and doesn't displace residents! Carbon counts in whole life cycle impacts on communities, and thus there should also be a demolition tax!

2. We don't understand how sublots and duplexes will create affordable housing vs. removing affordable housing to become luxury rentals and short-term rentals remotely owned. Where is zoning's action on STR oversight on these majority remotely-owned illegal Airbnbs? Investors are already speculating on their next lucrative duplex possibilities that used to be affordable housing.

3. Land values continue to rise and upzoning raises them further! Displacement is underway.

4. Height transition standards must be driven by solar impacts! Mandatory shadow-modeling for anything over 3 stories to allow solar opportunities for ALL OUR NEIGHBORS! Richmond is supposed to be Net Zero by 2050.

5. Tree canopies must be protected and not diminished. Tree Removal Permits for any tree 4" in diameter!

6. We love adaptive reuse of churches, especially for affordable housing! YIGBY (Yes In God's Back Yard) is great but it seems like the majority of properties are simply being sold instead being redeveloped affordably. MX3 has huge implications on communities and should be more gentle.

7. WHERE'S THE INFRASTRUCTURE? We can't evolve without adequate sewer, solar, water, and other utilities. The Department of Public Utilities and Department of Public Works staff must be part of the Code Refresh process.

RKG Associates' Conflict: Beyond Subdivisions: Mapping the By-Right Density Expansion in Richmond’s RA and RM Districts

This quiet street, made up of mostly 2-story owned and rented homes, has now been zoned mixed-use 5 stories allowing 6 units by right. Investors are enticed, and local home buyers lose out.

An analysis submitted by a resident of Southside shows conflicts and missing data in RKG Associates' study that claims "...even under the most intense development scenario, Richmond’s citywide rezoning would lead to the addition of new units on just under 300 lots in existing single family neighborhoods annually."

"The Richmonder March 19 report on the RKG Associates study presents an incomplete dataset by focusing on 'subdivision feasibility' rather than volumetric density increases. While the study grounds its findings in RD lot constraints, it fails to account for the by-right density shifts in the RA (Residential Attached) and that Code Refresh made them RM-A (6 units), RM-B (12 units), and RM-C (unlimited Residential Mixed-use) districts.

1. The 1,200% Volumetric Loophole

The study calculates impact based on "new lots" created, ignoring unit-counts per existing lot. In the RA-C district (prevalent in the 23223 and 23220 zip codes), the 2026 Code Refresh allows for "Stacked Flats" of up to 12 units per building by-right. Replacing a single-family structure with a 12-unit multi-family building represents a localized density spike that requires no subdivision. By removing the Special Use Permit (SUP) requirement, the City eliminates the public's ability to audit the infrastructure load of these 1,200% increases before approval. 

2. Fiscal and Infrastructure Incompatibility 

The RKG study ignores the correlation between by-right density and the $47.6 million Department of Public Utilities (DPU) debt anchor.

• Administrative Incapacity: The Finance Department currently reports a 1/3 vacancy rate. 
• The Gap: A city that cannot project its own surplus—revising its $22M estimate down to $12.6M in February—cannot be trusted to monitor the tax compliance or physical load of 12-unit developments in neighborhoods where utility infrastructure is already failing to recover costs. 

3. Forensic Conflict: The 897-Page Nexus 

The "independent" nature of the RKG study is contradicted by SCC filing history. On October 4, 2013, an 897-page batch filing moved ​RKG Associates and thousands of development entities to a centralized administrative hub at 100 Shockoe Slip under Commonwealth Legal Services Corporation (a subsidiary of CSC). 

​RKG Associates shares the exact same Registered Agent and administrative infrastructure as the entities currently land-banking parcels in Blackwell​, a significant conflict of interest. The firm providing the "limited impact" analysis is structurally linked to the organizations benefiting from the rezoning. 

Furthermore, the August 13, 2015, Articles of Domestication for RKG is missing its digital image in the SCC portal, preventing verification of the signatures that link these out-of-state principals to Richmond land-holders. 

The RKG study is an analysis of lot layouts, not community impact. 

For Southside residents, a 1,200% density increase on 19th-century infrastructure is not "limited." It is a fundamental restructuring of our blocks without a corresponding plan to address the $47.6M utility deficit."

District	Pre Code Refresh	Post Code Refresh 2026	Impact
RA-B	1-2 units, duplex	Up to 6 units BY RIGHT	+300% density BY RIGHT
RA-C	1-4 units (Limited)	Up to 12 units BY RIGHT	Multi-Family By-Right Consolidation
RX-4	Variable height	Up to 4 Stories BY RIGHT	Commercial VERTICALITY

About the Author
I live in a historically Black neighborhood south of the James River with my wife and kids, where the sound of the river rapids and the 19th century train trestles are our daily backdrop. We walk our dog, Lucy, past the brick building  of the old Dunbar School and through the streets of Blackwell, while our cat, Tobi, stays home in our historic house. As a member of the Richmond Civic League, I value the preservation of these actual blocks over the abstract models used to justify citywide rezoning. I remain anonymous to keep the focus on the data, but I am a neighbor who sees the consequences of city planning every time I cross the T-Pott bridge.