Open Letter On Code Refresh
Date: Mon, Oct 5, 2026 at 8:27 AM
Subject: Code Refresh Population and Housing Assumption Findings
To: <RVAMayor@rva.gov>
Cc: <Laura.Drewry@rva.gov>, Kenya <kenya.gibson@rva.gov>, <andrew.breton@rva.gov>, <katherine.jordan@rva.gov>, <sarah.abubaker@rva.gov>, <stephanie.lynch@rva.gov>, <ellen.robertson@rva.gov>, <cynthia.newbille@rva.gov>, Reva Trammell <reva.trammell@rva.gov>, <richmond300@rva.gov>
Dear Mayor Avula, Members of the City Council, and City Attorney Drewry,RVA Design Coalition has invited several locally-based national experts to review the current draft of Code Refresh. This is part of a citizen-based due diligence effort by RVA Design Coalition.
The first citizen-led due diligence effort is by Ben Porter, a Richmond resident with over 50 years professional experience in urban transportation and planning. The last two decades focused on due diligence with major transit construction projects including the Hudson River Tunnel; the Second Avenue subway and Canarsie Line Rehabilitation projects in New York City; the Portal North Bridge on the Northeast Corridor in New Jersey; the Metrorail Extension to Dulles International Airport; two subway and two light rail projects in Los Angeles; the BART extension to San Francisco International Airport; BART extensions into Santa Clara County and a doubling of capacity for the Transbay Tube. For the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), his client in each project, he prepared about 150 of these due diligence reports for a total project value exceeding $100 billion.
Mr. Porter has carefully reviewed the population and housing assumptions in both the Richmond 300 and the Code Refresh plans. Based on publicly available local, regional, state, federal, and private information, Mr. Porter makes the following findings:
- In Richmond 300, City planners assumed a city population of 300,000 by the year 2037 was a “reasonable” projection. This assumption is a foundation of Code Refresh (see image below).
- Mr. Porter’s due diligence found that the forecast for a 300,000 City population by the year 2037 is “highly unlikely” to occur
- Based on more current data, he found that the city population is not likely to reach 300,000 residents “until the mid 2060’s”
- A more realistic population forecast would reduce city-wide housing need by 39% to 73% (see image below)
- Current City zoning is more than adequate to meet these reduced housing needs
These trends are not unique to Richmond. The UVa Weldon Cooper Center is the official population forecasting agency for the Commonwealth, and it forecasts similar trends statewide.
Open Letter On Code Refresh
Date: Mon, Oct 5, 2026 at 8:27 AM
Subject: Code Refresh Population and Housing Assumption Findings
To: <RVAMayor@rva.gov>
Cc: <Laura.Drewry@rva.gov>, Kenya <kenya.gibson@rva.gov>, <andrew.breton@rva.gov>, <katherine.jordan@rva.gov>, <sarah.abubaker@rva.gov>, <stephanie.lynch@rva.gov>, <ellen.robertson@rva.gov>, <cynthia.newbille@rva.gov>, Reva Trammell <reva.trammell@rva.gov>, <richmond300@rva.gov>
Subject: Code Refresh Population and Housing Assumption Findings
To: <RVAMayor@rva.gov>
Cc: <Laura.Drewry@rva.gov>, Kenya <kenya.gibson@rva.gov>, <andrew.breton@rva.gov>, <katherine.jordan@rva.gov>, <sarah.abubaker@rva.gov>, <stephanie.lynch@rva.gov>, <ellen.robertson@rva.gov>, <cynthia.newbille@rva.gov>, Reva Trammell <reva.trammell@rva.gov>, <richmond300@rva.gov>
Dear Mayor Avula, Members of the City Council, and City Attorney Drewry,
RVA Design Coalition has invited several locally-based national experts to review the current draft of Code Refresh. This is part of a citizen-based due diligence effort by RVA Design Coalition.The first citizen-led due diligence effort is by Ben Porter, a Richmond resident with over 50 years professional experience in urban transportation and planning. The last two decades focused on due diligence with major transit construction projects including the Hudson River Tunnel; the Second Avenue subway and Canarsie Line Rehabilitation projects in New York City; the Portal North Bridge on the Northeast Corridor in New Jersey; the Metrorail Extension to Dulles International Airport; two subway and two light rail projects in Los Angeles; the BART extension to San Francisco International Airport; BART extensions into Santa Clara County and a doubling of capacity for the Transbay Tube. For the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), his client in each project, he prepared about 150 of these due diligence reports for a total project value exceeding $100 billion.
Mr. Porter has carefully reviewed the population and housing assumptions in both the Richmond 300 and the Code Refresh plans. Based on publicly available local, regional, state, federal, and private information, Mr. Porter makes the following findings:
- In Richmond 300, City planners assumed a city population of 300,000 by the year 2037 was a “reasonable” projection. This assumption is a foundation of Code Refresh (see image below).
- Mr. Porter’s due diligence found that the forecast for a 300,000 City population by the year 2037 is “highly unlikely” to occur
- Based on more current data, he found that the city population is not likely to reach 300,000 residents “until the mid 2060’s”
- A more realistic population forecast would reduce city-wide housing need by 39% to 73% (see image below)
- Current City zoning is more than adequate to meet these reduced housing needs
The number of housing units permitted in Richmond since 2020, and the resulting rise in vacancy rates, call into question the notion that we have a housing crisis. I hope the findings in the report provide a helpful framework for updating our Code Refresh policies to better serve the community.
Read the report here: